Thesis

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via stage×impact scoring, action-first triage, deadline-aware buckets, structured primary sources (Federal Register + SEC/CFTC RSS), persistent URL dedup, source-status observability -->

${var} — Specific regulatory topic to narrow focus (e.g. prediction-markets, stablecoins, ai-agents). If empty, scans all tracked domains.

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on current positions and interests. Read the last 2 days of memory/logs/ entries for this skill to avoid repeating items. Read memory/topics/reg-monitor-seen.md (create if missing) for persistent URL dedup across all prior runs.

Thesis

Original skill produced news-shaped output (HIGH PRIORITY / NOTABLE / WATCH LIST) with soft ranking and no deadlines. Reg-monitor's real value is decisions — file a comment, prepare for a ban, short a market, brief counsel. Rank items by stage × impact, surface deadlines, drop filler buckets, and distinguish "quiet week" from "monitor failure" via source-status observability.

Steps

1. Load inputs (structured primary sources first, WebSearch as gap-filler)

Set today=$(date -u +%F), year=$(date +%Y), since=$(date -u -d '7 days ago' +%F).

Fetch from each source below. Track which succeed/fail — you'll emit a source_status footer. Treat each as independent; any single failure is non-fatal.

A. Federal Register (authoritative US rulemakings, notices, enforcement) — public, no auth:

WebFetch: https://www.federalregister.gov/api/v1/documents.json?conditions[publication_date][gte]=${since}&conditions[term]=prediction+market+OR+digital+asset+OR+stablecoin+OR+cryptocurrency+OR+AI+agent&per_page=40&order=newest

Extract per item: title, publication_date, type (Rule / Proposed Rule / Notice), agencies, document_number, html_url, comments_close_on (critical — drives ACT bucket), abstract.

B. SEC press releases (RSS) — authoritative enforcement + guidance:

WebFetch: https://www.sec.gov/news/pressreleases.rss

Keep only items published on/after ${since}. Match titles against keywords: crypto, digital asset, stablecoin, token, DeFi, prediction, event contract, AI.

C. CFTC press releases (RSS) — authoritative prediction market + derivatives actions:

WebFetch: https://www.cftc.gov/RSS/RSSPR/rsspr.xml

Keep items on/after ${since}. CFTC runs prediction-market rulemaking — all CFTC items are in-scope by default.

D. WebSearch (gap-filler for state bills, court rulings, international) — run these with the current year injected:

• "prediction market" (bill OR legislation OR ban OR ruling) ${year}
• "Polymarket" OR "Kalshi" (CFTC OR state OR ruling OR investigation) ${year}
• stablecoin (legislation OR regulation OR enforcement) ${year}
• "AI agent" (regulation OR liability OR legislation) ${year}
• ESMA OR MiCA (enforcement OR guidance) ${year}

If ${var} is set, replace the above with 3 targeted searches for that specific topic (include ${year} and "bill OR ruling OR enforcement").

E. Congress.gov (optional, skip if no API key) — if CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY env var is set, WebFetch bill search for crypto/prediction-market keywords. Otherwise skip silently and rely on Federal Register + WebSearch to catch bill activity.

2. Deduplicate against seen URLs

Read memory/topics/reg-monitor-seen.md (format: one URL per line, oldest first). Drop any candidate whose URL already appears. Also drop candidates whose title substring-matches an entry from the last 2 days of memory/logs/.

If the seen-file exceeds 500 lines, keep only the most recent 500 before appending new items at end.

3. Filter

Discard:

• Opinion pieces, think-tank posts, academic papers (unless directly cited in a bill/rule/ruling)
• Industry lobbying announcements with no bill/docket link
• Generic "crypto market" news without a regulatory action
• Rumors without a concrete document/docket/case number

Keep only: bills introduced/advancing, agency rulemakings, enforcement actions, court rulings, official guidance, international regulatory coordination.

4. Score each surviving item

Compute triage_score = impact × stage:

impact (domain relevance to tracked interests):

• 3 — direct hit on prediction markets / event contracts / Polymarket / Kalshi / coordination markets
• 2 — crypto/DeFi/stablecoin/token classification
• 1 — AI agents, privacy/KYC, open-source liability (secondary)

stage (how close to binding):

• 5 — enacted law, final rule, binding court ruling, active enforcement (fine issued, C&D)
• 4 — passed a chamber, passed committee, agency final-rule comment period open with deadline <14d
• 3 — proposed rule / ANPRM with open comment period, bill reported out of committee
• 2 — introduced bill with at least one co-sponsor, leaked draft rule, staff advisory
• 1 — introduced bill with no co-sponsors, rumored action, international coordination statement

Jurisdiction multiplier — apply AFTER impact × stage:

• US federal or EU-wide: ×1.0
• US state (CA, NY, TX), UK: ×0.8
• Other G7: ×0.6
• Rest of world: ×0.4

5. Triage into buckets

• ACT (score ≥ 10, or comment deadline within 7 days, or enforcement action in last 7 days) — items that need a decision or action now
• WATCH (score 6-9) — actively advancing, not yet actionable
• CONTEXT (score 3-5) — relevant but early-stage; include only if ACT + WATCH combined < 5 items, otherwise drop
• Below 3: discard

Cap at 8 items total across all buckets. Sort within each bucket by score descending.

6. Enrich top items

For every ACT item and top 2 WATCH items, WebFetch the source URL and extract:

• what changed: one specific, verifiable sentence (not "the CFTC did something")
• who's affected: named entities or clearly-scoped class
• timeline: next milestone date if any (vote, deadline, effective date)
• prediction market angle: does this create a tradeable event, or directly affect an existing Polymarket/Kalshi market? Omit the line if none.

7. Compose notification

Keep under 4000 chars. If all buckets empty after filtering: skip notify, write REG_MONITOR_OK to the log, end.

*Reg Monitor — ${today}*
{1-line thesis: e.g. "3 items need a decision this week" or "quiet week, 2 to watch"}

*ACT*
• [Title](url) — jurisdiction · stage
  what changed. who's affected.
  ⏰ {deadline or effective date}
  📊 prediction market angle: {if any}

*WATCH*
• [Title](url) — jurisdiction · stage
  one-sentence verdict.

*CONTEXT* (only if included)
• [Title](url) — one-line summary.

—
sources: federal-register={ok|fail} · sec={ok|fail} · cftc={ok|fail} · websearch={ok|fail} · congress={ok|fail|skip}
{n} developments scored, {n_act} act / {n_watch} watch / {n_context} context

If all sources failed, send a different notification: *Reg Monitor — ${today}* ⚠️ all sources failed, see log and write REG_MONITOR_ERROR to the log. Do not emit an empty digest.

If some sources failed (partial data), still send the digest but flag it in the thesis line: ⚠️ partial — {failed sources} down. Log REG_MONITOR_DEGRADED.

8. Update state

Append every URL included in the notification to memory/topics/reg-monitor-seen.md, one per line.

9. Log to memory/logs/${today}.md

### reg-monitor
- Status: {REG_MONITOR_OK | REG_MONITOR_DEGRADED | REG_MONITOR_ERROR | sent}
- Items: {n_act} act / {n_watch} watch / {n_context} context
- Sources: fr={ok|fail} sec={ok|fail} cftc={ok|fail} ws={ok|fail} cg={ok|fail|skip}
- Top item: {title, score, stage}
- Deadlines tracked: {any comment-period or vote dates in the next 14 days}

What counts as a regulatory development

Include: bills introduced/advancing; agency rulemakings (NPRM/ANPRM/final rule); enforcement actions (fines, C&D, consent orders); court rulings affecting in-scope domains; official guidance/advisory letters; international coordination statements tied to a concrete document (FATF, G7, Basel).

Exclude: opinion pieces; think-tank reports (unless cited in a bill/docket); industry lobbying with no bill attached; academic papers; speculation without a document; press releases announcing future press releases.

Sandbox note

The sandbox blocks some outbound curl. Use WebFetch for every URL fetch (it's the Claude built-in and bypasses the sandbox). Federal Register, SEC RSS, CFTC RSS, and WebSearch all work without env-var auth. Congress.gov API requires CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY — skip silently if unset.

Environment Variables

• CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY (optional) — enables Congress.gov bill search step E. Skill degrades gracefully without it.

Constraints

• Never emit an empty notification — if nothing clears the ACT/WATCH threshold, log REG_MONITOR_OK and stay silent.
• Never include a URL already in memory/topics/reg-monitor-seen.md.
• Never include speculation or opinion in the ACT bucket — only documents with a docket/bill/case number.
• Cap at 8 items total; actionable items beat volume.